COMMENTS NO: YEAR/2018/1201

“JOURNALIST: 'You and your team members have 
done a survey on several opinions of several people 
regarding the upcoming Bangabhoomi Panchayat 
Election of 2018. So, if you can give a rough idea 
about the outcome or result of the Panchayat Election.'

RESEARCHER & STATISTICIAN : 'Clearly, TMC is going to win 
the Panchayat Election by a huge margin against its 
opposition parties. But, to some extent, TMC has hit the axe 
on its legs by doing unnecessary violence and hooliganism. 
As a net result, many candidates from within the TMC party 
decided to fight as an Independent candidate. Believe it 
or not, some Independent candidates in some areas of 
Bangabhoomi may even defeat the TMC candidates. 
Due to these Independent Candidates, the vote percentage 
of TMC may reduce by 2.5% to 3%. The alliance between 
INC and CPI(M) may become a blessing in disguise for BJP 
as BJP may succeed in getting some votes from both 
INC and CPI(M) supporters. BJP may increase its vote 
percentage by 15% to emerge as the 2nd largest party in 
Bangabhoomi, but, still a long way to go, 
to have a tough and thrilling competition with TMC.'

JOURNALIST: 'Now, if we roughly assume this prediction, 
then is this result of the Bangabhoomi Panchayat 
Election of 2018 going to have any 
impact on the Lok Sabha Election in 2019 ?'

POLITICAL ANALYST: 'The upcoming Assembly Election in 
Karnataka is very vital for the national politics. If BJP comes 
to power in Karnataka, then, it will have some impact on 
its vote-bank in the South Indian states. Hence, BJP may come 
to power by getting majority seats in the Lok Sabha Election 
of 2019. Point to be noted, that INC may not join hands 
with the Third Front. In that case, BJP is the gainer. Even in 
Bangabhoomi, BJP may get around 10 seats in the Lok Sabha 
Election of 2019. TMC may have to work harder now, because if 
everything goes as per the plan and political calculations in 
favour of BJP, then, both BJP and TMC have almost equal chances 
of winning the Bangabhoomi Assembly Election of 2021.'”- Arindam Sain